OK, I wanted to stay focussed on potential NBN applications, but recent comments by Wayne Swan really demand a response. Wayne Swan claims that not developing a high speed broadband network would be "the same as sending our jobs overseas".
Let us just ponder on the logic of this for a second. What makes Wayne Swan think that increased consumption of technology services with an NBN would result in job creation in Australia? In fact better communications in general tend to make offshoring a more viable proposition. Improvements in voice communication over the last ten years have led to major losses of local call centre jobs. There is no doubt that video production and consumption will go the same way. If you want to promote local technology industries and improve local job opportunities than invest in education and skills development. Don't just stimulate increased local consumption.
The most relevant example I can think of is the broadcasting industry.People used to think that the introduction of colour television back in the 70s would stimulate the local television production industry. Of course all that happened was consumers choose to watch television shows produced overseas in colour, as no one had bothered to get the local production companies up to speed before the technology took off.
The NBN today is as bad an idea for stimulating local jobs as would have been subsidising colour television sales in the 70s. Australians get to watch reruns of "Farmer wants a Wife" in grainy low res and Americans get Hulu. It might be an idea to think about this for a second. How is that for a competitive marketplace :).
The idea that improvements in broadband speed and coverage would be directly responsible for jobs in Australia, without any concurrent investment in supporting Australian technology industry, is the worst kind of parochial, protectionist, antiquated and delusional propaganda. In fact the exact opposite is the more likely scenario, that better connectivity offers consumers more competitive services. And based on the current government's lack of vision the more competitive services are almost certainly likely to come from India and the US.
The only way to prevent the exodus would be to do something really stupid like block access to services outside Australia with a giant filter. Oh, hang on :).
Of course you can't do this overtly, as the WTO would not take kindly to such protectionist measures. Therefore you would have to justify it based on copyright violations or some other such nonsense. I fail to understand how you violate copyright by purchasing something legally from another country, whether it is a product or service. So much for bilateral free trade agreements. Does anyone really that it is a coincidence that attempts to remove protectionist laws for local publishing and music distributors have failed? You always have to consider the bigger picture.
Just how long does anyone think the floodgates can be held back? Outdated ideas to stimulate an artificial sense of scarcity are not an option for gambling on the future of our national prosperity. There is no such thing as scarcity in the digital age.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
The NBN Debate
It seems that every man and his dog has an opinion on the proposed National Broadband Scheme in Australia, so I guess I feel compelled to add my voice to the cacophony. Of course nobody can really speak with any sense without a realistic cost / benefit analysis, so everything I say is non sense. Facts are always open to interpretation in a political debate . However the Federal Government is the one arguing that this is nation building infrastructure that will enable as yet impossible to imagine benefits for all time. So it is against the idea of yet to be realised future benefits that I will limit my attention.
There is a long practiced tenet in IT architecture that dictates that you do not architect or design a system for unknown or unspecified future requirements. There is a good reason for this. In the technology industry things tend to change. Predicting IT trends is hard. It's usually easy enough to spot the reasons why particular technologies are unlikely to succeed in the long run, but much more difficult to pick the winners. Just think about Service Oriented Architecture as a good idea that failed to live up to its promise, and Twitter as a ridiculous idea that took off.
I vehemently disagree with the premise that we don't know what future applications will look like. It's a pretty sure bet that they will have digitised audio, video and data. What we don't know is what the apps will do, or how they will be used, but to a certain extent that is not particularly relevant or interesting. It's like when the road system was first built, they did not have a clue what types of vehicles might be invented over time, but it would have been reasonable to expect vehicles with wheels. You might have debated the size and weight of future vehicles, but one you started building the infrastructure you could be pretty sure that all vehicles would be designed so that they could work on the existing roads. Not the other way round.
Bandwidth is also not particularly interesting. The law of diminishing returns is very much relevant when it comes to bandwidth. For example we can do reasonably high quality voice communication in as little as 10Kb. If you double the bandwidth you don't get double the improvement in voice quality. At some point the improvement in quality becomes impossible to detect. There is a good reason why the 16 bit audio CD has remained as the standard form factor for audio, in spite of numerous attempts over the years to get consumers to upgrade to higher definition formats. At some point good enough is good enough.
As for video, we are probably close to good enough. High definition video works just fine on the current ADSL speed networks, particularly when the feed is buffered. High definition video conferencing is slightly more of a challenge because the link needs to support a full duplex symmetrical connection. But once again two or three participant conferences are easily managed on existing copper based ADSL 2 connections.
It is unlikely that the bandwidth demands of video based applications are going to increase at an exponential rate. Compression techniques and streaming algorithms continue to improve in line with increasing application demands. I guess you could imagine perhaps doubling bandwidth requirements with 3D video, but at some point potential improvements will be marginal at best. If I had to pick bandwidth which this will occur I would guess somewhere in the vicinity of 3 to 4 Mb. (And you will never need more than 640K RAM. But I digress.)
Of course it is impossible to predict technology advances in excess of a ten year timeframe. For example we could develop holographic video with massive bandwidth requirements. That is the point, we simply can't predict that far in the future, so trying to develop technology infrastructure that is expected to last for more than ten years is a delusional conceit.
As for data, well you can probably find ways to consume whatever bandwidth is available. But once again there is no great mystery running applications on networks with 100Mb bandwidth. If we want a preview of what would be possible on a high speed broadband network we only have to look at corporate LAN environments to get a hint. I can think of lots of examples that would enable businesses, but then again I don’t see businesses waiting around for the NBN before they roll out critical applications. Of course they will use it once it is there. As long as the price is competitive.
When it comes to actually defining potential applications the government is rather vague. A spokesman for Stephen Conroy is quoted in the Herald yesterday giving some concrete examples of the need for fixed fibre to every home.
"The NBN will open up opportunities for business to reach new markets as well as enhancing access to education and in-home health care. The NBN can also assist in keeping people in their homes longer, freeing up hospital beds and improving their quality of life by not having to move into an aged care facility when they just need monitoring. People will also be able to better monitor and manage their use of electricity and water utilities using online tools."
Once again none of these applications would appear to be particularly bandwidth intensive, or difficult to achieve with current ADSL technology. Most of the monitoring and alerting systems available today operate within less than 64Kb of traffic per managed node, and that is for monitoring extremely active systems. Monitoring household electricity usage or personal health systems would be trivial.
I guess I find it pretty ironic that at this point in history we are having a national debate about bandwidth and coverage, when we are finally getting to the point where bandwidth and coverage are no longer major limiting factors. For the last fifteen years we have been waiting for internet connections that would allow widespread video on demand, hi definition video conferencing and cloud based applications, and now all of these services have arrived.
The greatest challenge moving forward from here is not a limitation of technology, it is our ability to innovate and develop compelling new applications and services. Sure we may get to another plateau where technology once again becomes the limitation, but for now our prerogative should be to invest in innovation.
There is a long practiced tenet in IT architecture that dictates that you do not architect or design a system for unknown or unspecified future requirements. There is a good reason for this. In the technology industry things tend to change. Predicting IT trends is hard. It's usually easy enough to spot the reasons why particular technologies are unlikely to succeed in the long run, but much more difficult to pick the winners. Just think about Service Oriented Architecture as a good idea that failed to live up to its promise, and Twitter as a ridiculous idea that took off.
I vehemently disagree with the premise that we don't know what future applications will look like. It's a pretty sure bet that they will have digitised audio, video and data. What we don't know is what the apps will do, or how they will be used, but to a certain extent that is not particularly relevant or interesting. It's like when the road system was first built, they did not have a clue what types of vehicles might be invented over time, but it would have been reasonable to expect vehicles with wheels. You might have debated the size and weight of future vehicles, but one you started building the infrastructure you could be pretty sure that all vehicles would be designed so that they could work on the existing roads. Not the other way round.
Bandwidth is also not particularly interesting. The law of diminishing returns is very much relevant when it comes to bandwidth. For example we can do reasonably high quality voice communication in as little as 10Kb. If you double the bandwidth you don't get double the improvement in voice quality. At some point the improvement in quality becomes impossible to detect. There is a good reason why the 16 bit audio CD has remained as the standard form factor for audio, in spite of numerous attempts over the years to get consumers to upgrade to higher definition formats. At some point good enough is good enough.
As for video, we are probably close to good enough. High definition video works just fine on the current ADSL speed networks, particularly when the feed is buffered. High definition video conferencing is slightly more of a challenge because the link needs to support a full duplex symmetrical connection. But once again two or three participant conferences are easily managed on existing copper based ADSL 2 connections.
It is unlikely that the bandwidth demands of video based applications are going to increase at an exponential rate. Compression techniques and streaming algorithms continue to improve in line with increasing application demands. I guess you could imagine perhaps doubling bandwidth requirements with 3D video, but at some point potential improvements will be marginal at best. If I had to pick bandwidth which this will occur I would guess somewhere in the vicinity of 3 to 4 Mb. (And you will never need more than 640K RAM. But I digress.)
Of course it is impossible to predict technology advances in excess of a ten year timeframe. For example we could develop holographic video with massive bandwidth requirements. That is the point, we simply can't predict that far in the future, so trying to develop technology infrastructure that is expected to last for more than ten years is a delusional conceit.
As for data, well you can probably find ways to consume whatever bandwidth is available. But once again there is no great mystery running applications on networks with 100Mb bandwidth. If we want a preview of what would be possible on a high speed broadband network we only have to look at corporate LAN environments to get a hint. I can think of lots of examples that would enable businesses, but then again I don’t see businesses waiting around for the NBN before they roll out critical applications. Of course they will use it once it is there. As long as the price is competitive.
When it comes to actually defining potential applications the government is rather vague. A spokesman for Stephen Conroy is quoted in the Herald yesterday giving some concrete examples of the need for fixed fibre to every home.
"The NBN will open up opportunities for business to reach new markets as well as enhancing access to education and in-home health care. The NBN can also assist in keeping people in their homes longer, freeing up hospital beds and improving their quality of life by not having to move into an aged care facility when they just need monitoring. People will also be able to better monitor and manage their use of electricity and water utilities using online tools."
Once again none of these applications would appear to be particularly bandwidth intensive, or difficult to achieve with current ADSL technology. Most of the monitoring and alerting systems available today operate within less than 64Kb of traffic per managed node, and that is for monitoring extremely active systems. Monitoring household electricity usage or personal health systems would be trivial.
I guess I find it pretty ironic that at this point in history we are having a national debate about bandwidth and coverage, when we are finally getting to the point where bandwidth and coverage are no longer major limiting factors. For the last fifteen years we have been waiting for internet connections that would allow widespread video on demand, hi definition video conferencing and cloud based applications, and now all of these services have arrived.
The greatest challenge moving forward from here is not a limitation of technology, it is our ability to innovate and develop compelling new applications and services. Sure we may get to another plateau where technology once again becomes the limitation, but for now our prerogative should be to invest in innovation.
Monday, September 13, 2010
The Road to the Cloud
Recently I was asked to reflect on what kinds of cloud technology projects I expect to see in the next eighteen months , and what kind of skills will be required to deliver those projects.
After having a lot of conversations with different companies around their cloud roadmap I think we can classify the current phase as “getting ready”, rather than “fully committed”. So, particularly in the infrastructure space, the types of projects and engagements I expect in the next twelve to eighteen months are not that different from what we have been focusing on the last two years or so.
In order to get ready to move to cloud services many organisations need to clean up and consolidate what they currently own. Directory consolidation, server virtualisation and upgrading to the latest platform are certainly critical to help position for a jump to the cloud. I'm also getting the feeling that customers are willing to trade off some of the functionality they currently enjoy for simpler and cleaner technology environments. This is a real fundamental shift from the way that IT departments have deployed infrastructure in the past.
I am also talking with several companies who look to the cloud for solving the integration challenge of mergers and acquisitions. I expect organisations to get their toes wet with cloud services by migrating smaller and more autonomous divisions or companies within their organisation. The key to success will not be having a small department running in the cloud, but it will be measured by the success of follow-on integration projects. The problem is that these small projects will probably not have the time or the resources provided to ensure successful future integration efforts. For large customers that go down this path the crucial engagement will be defining the overall architecture of the end state.
I am also having a lot of conversations about the idea of a private cloud. In the minds of most IT people the concept of the private cloud is synonymous with virtualisation. This has a lot to do with marketing strategies of virtualisation vendors, but it is also a failing on the part of technology leaders to clarify what cloud infrastructure really consists of, irrespective of whether it is hosted on premise on in a vendor's data centre. Once again it will require architecture skills to define a private cloud strategy that is not simply a virtualisation migration exercise.
Finally companies see the cloud as a way of achieving selective sourcing. The whole of IT approach to outsourcing was not very successful in managing costs, and had the significant disadvantage of hampering flexibility. The cloud offers a way to develop a services-based approach to selective sourcing. What will be required by customers are projects to decouple existing systems and processes, and to begin to define very clear service catalogues and models. The engagements that will come out of migrating to new sourcing models will be primarily operations process engagements.
In this new world the required skills are clear, they are primarily architecture and operations skills. Restructuring and decoupling existing processes is clearly a major activity that is ideally suited to operations skills. Defining a clean services models and architecting an environment which does not limit future cloud migration and integration efforts requires very high levels of architecture skill and experience. In fact the architecture profession will need to step up in a big way and start to develop some real discipline and maturity.
As for technical skills, there will certainly be opportunities in the short to medium term for experts in identity management, security and virtualisation. However in the long run the move to the cloud reduces the need for straight technical skills, and increases the need for architecture, operations and business expertise. The cloud is simply another service delivery option, which must be integrated into a cohesive technology strategy. Life is not about to get any easier.
After having a lot of conversations with different companies around their cloud roadmap I think we can classify the current phase as “getting ready”, rather than “fully committed”. So, particularly in the infrastructure space, the types of projects and engagements I expect in the next twelve to eighteen months are not that different from what we have been focusing on the last two years or so.
In order to get ready to move to cloud services many organisations need to clean up and consolidate what they currently own. Directory consolidation, server virtualisation and upgrading to the latest platform are certainly critical to help position for a jump to the cloud. I'm also getting the feeling that customers are willing to trade off some of the functionality they currently enjoy for simpler and cleaner technology environments. This is a real fundamental shift from the way that IT departments have deployed infrastructure in the past.
I am also talking with several companies who look to the cloud for solving the integration challenge of mergers and acquisitions. I expect organisations to get their toes wet with cloud services by migrating smaller and more autonomous divisions or companies within their organisation. The key to success will not be having a small department running in the cloud, but it will be measured by the success of follow-on integration projects. The problem is that these small projects will probably not have the time or the resources provided to ensure successful future integration efforts. For large customers that go down this path the crucial engagement will be defining the overall architecture of the end state.
I am also having a lot of conversations about the idea of a private cloud. In the minds of most IT people the concept of the private cloud is synonymous with virtualisation. This has a lot to do with marketing strategies of virtualisation vendors, but it is also a failing on the part of technology leaders to clarify what cloud infrastructure really consists of, irrespective of whether it is hosted on premise on in a vendor's data centre. Once again it will require architecture skills to define a private cloud strategy that is not simply a virtualisation migration exercise.
Finally companies see the cloud as a way of achieving selective sourcing. The whole of IT approach to outsourcing was not very successful in managing costs, and had the significant disadvantage of hampering flexibility. The cloud offers a way to develop a services-based approach to selective sourcing. What will be required by customers are projects to decouple existing systems and processes, and to begin to define very clear service catalogues and models. The engagements that will come out of migrating to new sourcing models will be primarily operations process engagements.
In this new world the required skills are clear, they are primarily architecture and operations skills. Restructuring and decoupling existing processes is clearly a major activity that is ideally suited to operations skills. Defining a clean services models and architecting an environment which does not limit future cloud migration and integration efforts requires very high levels of architecture skill and experience. In fact the architecture profession will need to step up in a big way and start to develop some real discipline and maturity.
As for technical skills, there will certainly be opportunities in the short to medium term for experts in identity management, security and virtualisation. However in the long run the move to the cloud reduces the need for straight technical skills, and increases the need for architecture, operations and business expertise. The cloud is simply another service delivery option, which must be integrated into a cohesive technology strategy. Life is not about to get any easier.
First Post
Welcome to another blog.
For this blog I'm just going to post random essays and thoughts about technology, business and personal development. In the past I have tried to develop blogs about specific area of interest. But my interests change over time, and each blog has been subsequently abandoned. This time round I'm not going to attempt to develop this into anything more than what it is, a collection of ideas that may help to inspire debate and conversation.
If there is a single consolidating theme then I guess it would be reflecting on what is possible, and what is likely. I have often been accused of being a cynic, and it is human nature to admire dreamers and denigrate cynics. However the prognostication track record for cynics is far superior to dreamers, although that comment itself is likely to be accused of cynical self-justification :).
I don't think bounded reason is such a great impediment when thinking about what is possible. I would like to imagine there is a middle ground somewhere between self deluded fantasy and idea crushing negativity. And if, occasionally, I just happen to get it right, at least I will be able to point back to the old posts and say, "look, I was right after all" :).
Dean
For this blog I'm just going to post random essays and thoughts about technology, business and personal development. In the past I have tried to develop blogs about specific area of interest. But my interests change over time, and each blog has been subsequently abandoned. This time round I'm not going to attempt to develop this into anything more than what it is, a collection of ideas that may help to inspire debate and conversation.
If there is a single consolidating theme then I guess it would be reflecting on what is possible, and what is likely. I have often been accused of being a cynic, and it is human nature to admire dreamers and denigrate cynics. However the prognostication track record for cynics is far superior to dreamers, although that comment itself is likely to be accused of cynical self-justification :).
I don't think bounded reason is such a great impediment when thinking about what is possible. I would like to imagine there is a middle ground somewhere between self deluded fantasy and idea crushing negativity. And if, occasionally, I just happen to get it right, at least I will be able to point back to the old posts and say, "look, I was right after all" :).
Dean
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